The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human activities, in particular it is warmer and more moist than it was 30 or 40 years ago.
We have this extra water vapour lurking around waiting for storms to develop and then there is more moisture as well as heat that is available for these storms.
The models suggest it is going to get drier in the subtropics, wetter in the monsoon trough and wetter at higher latitudes.
This is the pattern we’re already seeing.
KEVIN TRENBERTH, NCAR
NOT YOUR GRANDPARENTS’ CLIMATE!
Today’s climate is not the same as the one our grandparents’ knew. The Earth has warmed significantly over the last half-century, resulting in more frequent and intense weather extremes, including severe heat waves, historic droughts, powerful storms and severe flooding. An enormous amount of Arctic sea ice has been lost and the rate of global sea level rise has increased. Not only will these trends continue, they are expected to accelerate and the positive effect of reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions by the nations of the world will not be seen until decades after they are made.
You can run but you can’t hide. The effects of climate change are far reaching. Heat waves, droughts, storms and flooding all have local impacts that you may able to avoid or minimize by moving to someplace less exposed. However, they can also devastate agricultural production and disrupt global supply chains, resulting in serious economic consequences on a global scale.
You can manage your climate risk. Fortunately, it isn’t necessary to wait and see what develops and then try to react to it. It’s possible to use the tools of climate science to gain a good understanding of what’s coming and when, enabling you to decide what action to take and when to take it. Forward looking communities and organizations in both the public and private sectors are now taking advantage of these tools to understand the climate impacts that are here now, as well as prepare for those that are coming. Needless to say, those who avail themselves of these insights will be in a better position in the future than those who wait.
While the big picture of how the climate is changing is pretty clear, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the details, especially at the regional and local scales of practical interest, so a risk management approach is called for. This enables planners and decision makers to make explicit tradeoffs between climate risk and the cost of strengthening their resilience to climate impacts.
Argos Analytics offers the tools and services you need to manage your climate risk. And, when technical expertise on specific climate impacts is required, Argos has a network of experienced partners who can provide it.